This story originally was published by Real Clear Wire

By Steve Cortes

Brand new polling from Arizona reveals a paradox that should alarm Democrats who believe they’re guaranteed a sweeping blue wave victory in the midterm elections. Grand Canyon State voters are frustrated with the economy, yet they’re far from thrilled with the Democrats as an alternative.

A League of American Workers survey of 1,513 likely Arizona voters, conducted by Wick, captures an electorate in a very sour mood, particularly over their economic outlook. A 44% plurality of voters say their personal finances have worsened over the past year with Republicans in full control in Washington, while just 17% report improvement. Among independents, the gap widens to 48% worse versus just 16% better.

In a conventional midterm, economic pain of that magnitude would automatically doom the party holding the White House and Congress.

But there are some data points that are positive for Republicans’ chances.

The follow-up question in the poll on personal finances shows one such lane. Asked whether their finances would be better or worse today had former Vice President Kamala Harris been president these past two years, Arizonans say worse by a 7-point margin, 45% to 38%. Meanwhile, the congressional Democrat brand remains firmly in the toilet, earning just 34% approval against 64% disapproval. And socialism, the animating creed of the party’s activist left-wing base, sits at a dismal 28% favorable and 61% unfavorable.

Moreover, while voters are angry over the cost of living and the war in Iran, they dislike the Democrat alternative even more.

The Arizona polling stands out in a second important way. President Trump’s job approval here registers 45% approve and 55% disapprove, a net -10%. While this gap is no cause for celebration, it is much better than my recent polling elsewhere, where the president sat at -22% in Minnesota and -15% in Wisconsin. Interestingly, Vice President JD Vance continues to poll well ahead of the president, at 45% approve and 51% disapprove, a divergence I’ve now seen across multiple states in recent polling.

How come Arizona is holding up better for President Trump?

One reason why is that Republicans are still better positioned on some key issues.

In terms of border enforcement, Arizona voters want state and local police to cooperate with federal immigration enforcement by 55% to 37%. In the poll, Democrats opposed that cooperation by a 49-point margin as the party’s candidates increasingly campaign on defunding or abolishing ICE outright, the federal law enforcement agency tasked with removing dangerous illegal aliens who poured across the border by the millions under the Biden-Harris administration. Additionally, 42% of Arizonans say recent mass migration has made their own communities worse, versus just 20% who say better. In a border state, citizens see the consequences of open-borders radicalism firsthand, and they are not looking to return to it.

Arizonans also reject the Democrats’ embrace of importing the Islamic world into our country. Asked whether “mass migration of Muslims is overall positive or negative for American society,” 49% say negative, including 38% who say very negative, while just 16% call it positive; independents agree, breaking negative by 30 points. As my recent documentary on Dearborn, Michigan showed, communities that import large populations from the Third World invite anti-American sentiments to take root, and Arizonans clearly want leaders with the courage to put American culture, values, and citizens first.

On education, when told that only one in four Arizona eighth graders reads proficiently, 78% of voters say taxpayers receive a poor return on their investment in public education. The remedy also polls well: Arizona’s Empowerment Scholarship Accounts, the nation’s leading school choice program, earn a 44% favorable rating against 28% unfavorable. Republicans who champion parents over the teachers unions hold a clear advantage here.

So why, then, does Democrat Governor Katie Hobbs lead Republican Congressman Andy Biggs 48.9% to 43.2%?

The answer lies mainly in incumbency, not in any strong affection for Democrat governance. Sitting governors are notoriously tough to defeat. Between 2020 and 2023, 39 of the 40 who sought reelection won. Hobbs’s personal favorability splits evenly, at 47.1% favorable and 47.8% unfavorable, running far ahead of her party’s congressional brand, which sits 30 points underwater. And recall that she first won in 2022 by the skin of her teeth, less than a point, in an election marred by controversy.

Still, Hobbs has real political liabilities that Biggs and Republicans can and must exploit if they hope to have any chance of an upset victory. For example, when voters learn that Hobbs vetoed commonsense legislation banning sex-change procedures for minors, 45% say they are less likely to support her, versus 28% more likely. Among independents, the reaction runs 24 points against Hobbs. Voters understandably want children protected from these dangerous, cruel, irreversible procedures that Democrats insist on promoting.

Independents will likely decide this race as they always do in Arizona. They currently favor Hobbs 48.7% to 36.0%, yet they side with Republicans on police cooperation with ICE, on migration’s impact on their communities, and on socialism. The issues favor the GOP.

Most importantly though, Republicans must ruthlessly expose the Democrats’ radical positions and make this race a clear choice about what kind of state and country Arizonans want to live in. That means prosecuting the case against Hobbs’s veto, drawing a sharp contrast on border enforcement, promoting excellence in education vs. a failing public school status quo, and reminding voters that while this economy has plenty of room for improvement, the Democrat agenda would absolutely crush them.

Arizonans are angry about their finances but they’re not running back to the Left. Republicans have openings, and they must spend every day until November 3 seizing it.

Steve Cortes is president of the League of American Workers and senior political adviser to CatholicVote. He is a former senior adviser to President Trump and JD Vance, and a former commentator for Fox News.

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