A man in a dark blazer sings into a microphone on stage, illuminated by colorful lights.

A man in a dark blazer sings into a microphone on stage, illuminated by colorful lights.
Steve Hilton at AmFest 2024. Credit: Wikimedia Commons

California Republicans are showing a sharp increase in early primary turnout ahead of the state’s upcoming gubernatorial primary, according to newly released ballot return data.

Figures from research firm Political Data Inc. show that 905,889 ballots had already been returned as of Saturday. Republicans accounted for 37 percent of those ballots.

This marks an 11-point increase compared with the same stage of the 2022 midterm cycle.

Democrats accounted for 41 percent of returned ballots, down 13 points from the equivalent point four years ago. Independent and other voters made up 22 percent, up slightly.

The numbers suggest a significantly more energized Republican electorate in a state long dominated by Democrats.

Political Data vice president Paul Mitchell told The New York Post that Republican voters may be returning to traditional early voting habits after years in which President Trump and some other Republican figures raised concerns about mail voting.

“Republicans are potentially returning their ballots at a pre-2020 rate, before Trump and other leaders discouraged it,” Mitchell told the New York Post.

He also suggested some Democrats may be delaying their vote for tactical reasons.

“Some Democrats are holding on to their ballot to make sure their vote isn’t wasted, so that they get to vote for someone that makes it to the top two,” he said.

County-level breakdowns circulated on social media appeared to show Republicans outperforming their registration share across much of the state.

The strongest turnout so far has come from older voters. Californians aged 65 and over account for 54 percent of ballots returned, while voters aged 18 to 34 account for just 10 percent

Mitchell said the demographic pattern is typical of lower-turnout elections, where habitual voters dominate early returns.

California’s Democratic gubernatorial field includes former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Congresswoman Katie Porter, billionaire financier Tom Steyer, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.

On the Republican side, former Fox News host Steve Hilton is viewed as the frontrunner, with Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco also in the race.

The gubernatorial primary will take place on June 2nd.

California remains a deeply blue state at the statewide level, but the early numbers will fuel Republican hopes that they can make significant gains as frustration with Democratic governance continues to grow.

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