Reuters reports that Iran is close to finalizing a deal with Beijing to purchase CM-302 supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, according to six sources familiar with the negotiations. Talks began at least two years ago but accelerated after last June’s 12-day Israel-Iran war.

Senior Iranian military and government officials were involved, including Deputy Defense Minister Massoud Oraei. It remains unclear how many missiles are included, the price of the deal, or whether China will complete the transfer amid rising regional tensions.

The CM-302 is widely considered one of the most capable anti-ship missiles currently available. Supersonic and designed to fly at low altitude to evade naval radar, it has a range of approximately 290 kilometers. Military analysts have described the system as a potential “game-changer,” significantly increasing Iran’s ability to threaten U.S. aircraft carriers and destroyers operating in the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean.

Marketed by China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation, the missile can be launched from ships, aircraft, or mobile ground platforms and can strike both maritime and land targets.

Sources say Iran is also discussing additional purchases from China, including surface-to-air missile systems, anti-ballistic weapons, and anti-satellite capabilities. The transfer would represent one of the most advanced Chinese weapons sales to Iran in decades and could violate reimposed U.N. sanctions.

Analysts say the acquisition would help replenish Iran’s arsenal after last year’s war and reflect deepening China-Iran military ties. Without the missiles, Iran faces weakened conventional capacity and remains outmatched militarily. Its regional proxy network has also been degraded by sustained Israeli operations, limiting its ability to quickly reconstitute power.

Lebanon’s government has urged Hezbollah not to become involved if fighting breaks out between the United States and Iran, warning that escalation could trigger severe Israeli retaliation. Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji said Lebanese officials have received indications that Israel would strike civilian infrastructure, including possibly Beirut’s airport, in any renewed conflict. During the 2024 Israel-Hezbollah war, Israel killed much of Hezbollah’s leadership and launched a ground invasion before a U.S.-brokered ceasefire halted major fighting.

The White House did not directly address the reported negotiations but reiterated President Trump’s warning that Iran must reach a nuclear agreement or face serious consequences.

President Trump is reportedly growing frustrated as he weighs whether to order airstrikes after being advised that any military action would not deliver a single decisive blow and could draw the United States into a prolonged Middle East war. His decision is expected to depend in part on the assessment of special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner regarding whether Tehran is stalling in negotiations over relinquishing its nuclear weapons capability.

Trump has asked advisers for strike options strong enough to pressure Iran into negotiating from a weaker position, but military planners have cautioned there are no guarantees such action would achieve that objective. He has not made a final decision as the administration awaits Iran’s latest proposal ahead of scheduled negotiations in Geneva.

In addition to the reported Chinese missile deal, Iran may have already received advanced Russian shoulder-fired rockets. Reports from February 22–24, 2026 state that Tehran signed a secret $589 million arms agreement with Moscow for thousands of 9K333 Verba man-portable air-defense systems. According to leaked documents first reported by the Financial Times, the agreement was signed in Moscow in December 2025. Russia has reportedly committed to delivering 500 Verba launch units and 2,500 9M336 missiles.

The Verba is Russia’s most modern shoulder-fired air defense system. It uses a three-channel multispectral optical seeker operating in ultraviolet, near-infrared, and mid-infrared bands, making it highly resistant to countermeasures such as flares and laser dazzling systems used by Western aircraft. It is designed to target cruise missiles, drones, helicopters, and low-flying strike aircraft operating below traditional radar coverage.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War say the purchase reflects a shift in Iranian military doctrine following the June 2025 Twelve-Day War. After large, fixed radar systems such as the S-300 and S-400 were destroyed in U.S. and Israeli strikes, Iran appears to be moving toward a distributed air defense model using small, mobile teams. Unlike larger radar-based systems, the Verba can operate without emitting a detectable radar signature, allowing concealed units to engage aircraft with little warning.

The sale is also viewed as a means for Moscow to repair ties with Tehran after Russia did not intervene directly on Iran’s behalf during the 2025 conflict. Although official delivery schedules reportedly run from 2027 to 2029, intelligence reports indicate that some emergency units may already have arrived via Russian Il-76TD cargo aircraft observed landing in Karaj earlier this month. Leaked pricing suggests the missiles are being sold for approximately $200,000 per unit and launchers for about $47,000 each.

Both China and Russia risk additional sanctions if these transfers proceed. Russia is already heavily sanctioned, and the United States imports very little from Russia, limiting Washington’s remaining economic leverage. China, however, would be far more exposed to secondary sanctions and tariff penalties given the scale of its trade relationship with the United States.

On February 6, 2026, President Trump signed an executive order designed to penalize countries that materially support Iran. The order authorizes targeted tariffs of up to 25 percent on any country that “directly or indirectly” acquires goods or services from Iran and expands secondary sanctions aimed at foreign entities, including state-owned firms such as the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation.

President Trump confirmed that he discussed Iran during a February 4 phone call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. According to reports, Trump warned that Chinese military support for Iran, particularly the transfer of advanced weapons systems, would jeopardize the relationship between the two leaders and could affect ongoing trade discussions ahead of his planned visit to Beijing in April.

The United States has positioned itself for what former senior Pentagon official Dana Stroul described as a “highly kinetic” campaign against Iran, following one of the largest recent U.S. military buildups in the Middle East. She said the U.S. military is prepared for sustained offensive operations if ordered by President Trump and can rapidly reposition assets globally to deploy overwhelming force in a single theater.

The buildup includes expanded naval and air capabilities beyond those used in the June 2025 strikes on Iranian-linked nuclear targets. Two aircraft carriers, USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln, are operating in or moving toward the CENTCOM theater, potentially positioned between the eastern Mediterranean and the Arabian Gulf.

Additional guided-missile destroyers, fighter aircraft, refueling planes, and air defense systems have been deployed. The presence of the Ford enhances U.S. offensive capability and signals deterrence, reflecting broader and more sustained readiness than prior limited strikes.

 

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